* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * IGNACIO EP122015 09/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 47 44 42 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 51 47 44 42 30 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 51 47 43 40 32 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 24 14 10 12 8 13 27 32 37 35 41 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -8 -7 -3 -3 -1 2 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 170 178 191 206 240 282 262 241 248 267 283 294 272 SST (C) 24.4 23.9 23.5 23.0 22.3 20.2 16.6 15.4 15.2 15.1 15.8 15.8 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 109 104 99 93 85 64 63 64 65 66 65 60 57 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -53.0 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -55.2 -55.4 -55.6 -55.9 -55.8 -57.2 -59.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 48 47 49 48 46 49 54 53 45 42 43 53 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 33 32 31 27 25 25 24 22 17 13 8 850 MB ENV VOR 86 79 73 66 57 25 -1 -19 -14 -7 22 6 -14 200 MB DIV 60 43 -1 -18 1 -8 14 23 0 -6 -15 -1 9 700-850 TADV 1 7 3 3 13 0 -3 -4 3 4 14 35 19 LAND (KM) 1476 1662 1849 1839 1716 1485 1157 981 1017 1075 482 232 225 LAT (DEG N) 34.8 36.6 38.3 39.5 40.6 42.6 45.4 46.9 47.7 49.1 51.5 52.3 52.1 LONG(DEG W) 164.4 164.5 164.5 164.7 164.9 164.1 162.4 158.8 152.8 145.4 137.2 133.3 132.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 15 12 11 13 15 17 23 27 20 7 2 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 13 CX,CY: -2/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -14. -21. -27. -31. -33. -33. -35. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 0. -9. -22. -33. -43. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 16. 15. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 18. 23. 30. 36. 38. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -12. -12. -13. -16. -23. -29. -35. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -11. -13. -25. -35. -42. -50. -62. -77. -89.-104. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122015 IGNACIO 09/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122015 IGNACIO 09/05/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING