* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * KEVIN EP142015 09/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 38 33 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 42 38 33 27 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 38 35 31 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 26 25 25 25 28 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 1 3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 219 230 232 235 228 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 122 119 117 115 113 109 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 43 41 40 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 10 9 7 6 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 9 6 7 2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 13 23 33 19 3 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 7 2 7 6 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 397 382 374 411 450 522 628 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.4 22.9 23.3 23.5 23.7 23.8 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.2 115.4 115.6 116.1 116.6 117.9 119.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 7/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -26. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -11. -13. -14. -14. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -29. -40. -48. -54. -58. -62. -64. -64. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP142015 KEVIN 09/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.4/ -0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142015 KEVIN 09/05/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING