* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 09/05/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 53 60 68 71 72 72 70 V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 43 53 60 68 71 72 72 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 39 45 53 61 69 75 78 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 15 12 11 10 8 4 3 4 6 12 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 -7 -1 -5 -7 -3 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 41 39 34 18 10 5 3 351 91 158 141 148 149 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 29.3 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 159 160 161 161 160 158 158 154 149 144 138 129 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.3 -52.0 -51.2 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 81 82 84 86 84 84 84 81 78 73 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 12 12 13 14 16 18 19 21 21 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 25 21 25 35 40 41 45 41 43 47 43 200 MB DIV 79 67 68 60 60 77 113 97 126 115 110 45 35 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -8 -3 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 896 906 918 927 938 943 916 934 829 785 770 770 802 LAT (DEG N) 10.4 10.5 10.6 10.9 11.1 12.0 13.4 14.8 16.4 17.7 19.0 19.9 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 105.6 106.1 106.6 107.2 107.9 109.4 110.9 112.4 113.9 115.1 116.4 117.6 118.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 9 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 36 37 41 45 32 17 27 20 12 8 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 33. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 12. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 18. 28. 35. 43. 46. 47. 47. 45. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 09/05/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 09/05/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING