* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 35 34 33 36 40 43 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 35 34 33 36 40 43 46 48 50 51 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 35 34 33 31 32 36 41 47 54 56 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 38 34 30 25 21 17 12 4 11 17 25 30 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 -4 -3 -3 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 279 285 290 304 324 355 348 246 263 243 253 250 264 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.3 25.8 25.3 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 127 128 129 134 132 127 122 118 112 105 104 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 112 112 113 119 116 112 107 103 95 87 85 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.4 -54.6 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -55.2 -55.7 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 39 40 40 44 46 52 53 49 48 45 43 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -43 -46 -45 -39 -42 -15 15 14 3 -7 -21 -38 -41 200 MB DIV -10 -1 -24 -33 -26 14 -1 9 22 13 -7 6 0 700-850 TADV 2 0 1 3 3 -3 0 -13 -4 0 0 -9 -8 LAND (KM) 2387 2383 2381 2396 2413 2446 2330 2250 2171 2123 2025 1934 1863 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.4 23.7 24.2 24.6 26.4 28.1 29.7 31.6 33.6 35.6 36.3 36.0 LONG(DEG W) 40.6 41.1 41.7 42.2 42.8 42.5 40.9 39.1 37.1 34.9 32.5 31.0 30.3 STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 6 7 7 10 11 12 13 14 10 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 17 19 20 23 25 12 9 3 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 1. 5. 8. 11. 13. 15. 16. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/05/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)