* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 69 64 58 50 43 34 29 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 75 72 69 64 58 50 43 34 29 25 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 75 74 71 66 62 52 44 36 31 28 25 21 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 23 19 26 28 25 22 21 27 30 34 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 7 10 15 8 1 2 1 6 -1 3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 272 271 259 249 254 262 272 277 271 284 285 305 289 SST (C) 27.0 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 130 129 129 129 128 128 128 130 134 137 141 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 48 49 48 50 51 54 57 57 52 52 51 52 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 30 31 31 30 30 30 26 25 25 22 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 100 87 81 74 73 45 44 38 31 29 33 21 23 200 MB DIV 23 13 24 20 -2 -7 -17 -8 -12 -21 -15 -13 -7 700-850 TADV 18 18 16 21 22 17 7 3 -5 -4 -9 -7 -12 LAND (KM) 957 933 912 897 888 840 787 741 655 561 464 385 307 LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.5 24.3 24.8 24.9 24.9 24.8 24.7 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 145.7 146.0 146.3 146.6 146.9 147.9 149.1 150.2 151.4 152.8 154.4 156.1 157.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 2 7 9 8 4 3 2 5 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. -21. -25. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -8. -9. -9. -13. -17. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -11. -17. -25. -32. -41. -46. -50. -59. -67. -71. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING