* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 09/05/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 54 61 67 67 67 67 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 35 43 54 61 67 67 67 67 64 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 33 39 47 55 60 62 62 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 10 9 7 1 4 9 12 15 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -6 -3 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 41 37 32 32 25 34 90 166 159 163 170 166 185 SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 28.6 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.1 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 160 162 162 160 159 159 151 144 139 132 123 114 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.2 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 7 5 4 3 2 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 84 84 85 83 80 78 76 74 72 69 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 16 17 19 20 21 850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 25 22 23 34 34 38 57 49 55 49 39 200 MB DIV 87 77 73 75 78 91 79 91 92 62 62 25 33 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -2 -2 -4 -3 -6 -2 -2 2 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 904 876 850 824 806 788 804 706 668 643 632 632 606 LAT (DEG N) 10.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 9 10 12 12 10 7 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 37 42 44 38 26 17 23 18 7 5 1 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 29. 32. 33. 34. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 8. 12. 14. 15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 10. 18. 29. 36. 42. 42. 42. 42. 39. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 09/05/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 09/05/15 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING