* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 33 32 34 38 40 43 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 33 32 34 38 40 43 43 45 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 35 34 33 32 31 30 33 36 39 42 43 45 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 35 30 25 22 22 15 10 26 26 33 26 24 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 3 2 1 -1 1 -3 -1 -4 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 283 290 307 328 342 346 278 253 261 264 266 271 275 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.7 27.8 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.2 25.5 25.1 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 129 132 134 131 124 121 117 109 103 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 113 113 116 119 115 108 105 101 93 85 83 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.2 -54.3 -54.4 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -55.5 -55.8 -56.4 -56.8 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 40 40 43 47 50 53 48 39 35 28 29 36 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 8 8 6 6 8 7 8 8 8 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -46 -43 -48 -39 -8 -4 -16 -21 -37 -42 0 17 200 MB DIV 0 -26 -33 -27 -5 -2 4 -12 -16 -2 0 -17 10 700-850 TADV -2 0 3 4 3 -8 -7 -5 -2 -9 -10 -19 0 LAND (KM) 2354 2368 2384 2440 2497 2384 2273 2197 2141 2105 1970 1874 1824 LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.8 25.4 27.2 29.0 30.6 32.3 34.0 35.8 36.5 36.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 41.9 42.4 42.5 42.7 41.9 40.1 38.4 36.5 34.3 31.7 30.3 29.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 8 11 11 12 12 13 10 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 20 11 10 8 2 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 787 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 19.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 3. 5. 8. 8. 10. 12. 15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 52.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.9 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/05/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED