* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/05/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 65 62 59 52 46 39 33 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 68 65 62 59 52 46 39 33 29 18 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 68 64 59 51 44 38 34 30 26 23 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 22 20 22 20 21 21 16 24 17 29 30 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 13 9 6 2 3 6 2 8 0 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 270 264 259 253 257 254 281 277 287 287 297 299 305 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 129 129 129 129 127 127 129 132 136 140 144 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.4 -50.4 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.6 -52.2 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 51 52 53 54 58 57 55 56 58 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 31 31 29 29 26 25 24 20 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 91 83 72 73 62 33 29 24 20 28 15 12 12 200 MB DIV 23 31 18 5 17 2 -9 -4 -12 -8 -27 0 4 700-850 TADV 19 17 21 20 24 18 5 5 0 -8 -7 -10 -7 LAND (KM) 922 894 873 852 836 810 763 692 609 508 422 330 225 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.7 23.1 24.0 24.9 25.2 25.1 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.2 LONG(DEG W) 146.1 146.5 146.9 147.3 147.7 148.6 150.0 151.2 152.3 153.7 155.6 157.3 158.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 5 6 8 8 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 2 5 6 7 2 3 4 1 13 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 686 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -15. -18. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -15. -18. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -11. -18. -24. -31. -37. -41. -52. -60. -65. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING