* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 30 33 37 37 37 40 45 50 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 30 33 37 37 37 40 45 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 25 24 24 26 29 32 34 36 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 27 24 24 19 12 24 26 27 29 27 29 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 1 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -3 -4 -3 -6 -1 SHEAR DIR 286 301 323 342 349 312 246 258 256 268 267 266 258 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.1 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 131 134 134 132 125 120 119 116 113 112 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 115 115 119 120 116 108 102 101 98 94 93 96 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -54.4 -54.6 -55.3 -55.2 -55.6 -56.1 -56.4 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 37 41 45 51 54 51 42 37 35 33 33 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 8 7 8 9 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR -46 -40 -40 -21 -16 -4 -12 -32 -55 -64 -46 -2 8 200 MB DIV -22 -26 -30 -11 14 -19 -5 -5 6 4 11 23 5 700-850 TADV 0 3 3 3 -4 -6 -10 -3 0 -2 -8 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 2340 2369 2401 2470 2407 2269 2143 2131 2183 2098 2050 1960 1853 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.2 24.8 25.8 26.7 28.7 30.5 31.4 31.9 32.6 33.7 33.6 32.7 LONG(DEG W) 42.3 42.9 43.5 43.1 42.7 40.9 39.7 38.2 36.4 34.9 33.8 32.8 32.0 STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 10 11 12 9 8 8 7 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 20 24 22 18 10 8 5 3 3 1 1 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 807 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 0. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 3. 7. 7. 7. 10. 15. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 53.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -15.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/05/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/05/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)