* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072015 09/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 48 52 56 55 54 55 52 50 49 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 48 52 56 55 54 55 52 50 49 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 43 47 50 56 59 58 57 57 56 54 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 6 6 6 10 13 15 15 18 15 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 9 9 6 5 0 4 5 2 2 6 3 1 SHEAR DIR 93 128 145 162 222 242 248 250 251 251 242 247 245 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.7 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 143 145 142 134 130 130 133 131 131 128 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 142 145 143 133 128 128 131 129 127 121 120 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 62 61 59 58 57 55 51 53 53 54 50 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 13 13 13 13 15 14 13 14 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 31 34 33 26 20 7 5 -1 -14 -9 -13 200 MB DIV 27 25 0 -11 -11 2 6 -2 13 15 5 -11 -22 700-850 TADV -7 -3 -1 1 1 -2 -3 -4 0 3 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 921 1025 1131 1267 1403 1709 1971 1814 1627 1463 1315 1233 1178 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.4 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.6 15.8 LONG(DEG W) 25.7 26.8 27.8 29.1 30.4 33.3 35.8 38.5 41.2 44.0 46.6 48.9 50.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 13 13 13 13 13 14 13 12 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 7 8 8 10 16 16 14 11 20 23 23 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -16. -17. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 13. 17. 21. 20. 19. 20. 17. 15. 14. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 SEVEN 09/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 SEVEN 09/05/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)