* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 59 55 51 46 38 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 59 55 51 46 38 32 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 60 56 51 47 39 32 27 23 19 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 23 21 22 22 27 23 23 29 27 31 38 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 10 13 11 8 3 3 7 0 4 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 263 264 250 255 250 266 280 275 283 288 296 291 299 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.4 27.9 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 130 129 129 127 126 127 130 133 137 142 145 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.3 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 53 53 55 57 55 53 52 56 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 32 32 30 29 28 26 23 20 17 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 88 71 71 61 35 35 26 18 15 16 6 7 7 200 MB DIV 40 23 21 21 13 -24 -23 -20 -10 -29 1 -13 14 700-850 TADV 22 21 21 22 21 7 4 -3 -7 -10 -8 -10 -7 LAND (KM) 892 870 854 840 832 807 753 671 581 477 381 279 234 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.8 24.7 25.1 25.2 25.2 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 146.5 146.9 147.3 147.8 148.2 149.2 150.3 151.5 152.9 154.6 156.4 158.2 159.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 2 5 6 6 4 1 4 3 8 19 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. -16. -20. -24. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -12. -16. -21. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -14. -19. -27. -33. -40. -48. -55. -65. -70. -74. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/05/15 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING