* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP982015 09/05/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 59 61 61 59 56 55 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 47 54 59 61 61 59 56 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 42 48 52 54 52 49 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 10 7 7 1 5 12 14 14 11 14 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -4 -6 -4 -1 -3 -5 -3 -6 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 35 36 26 26 23 123 174 172 180 169 174 180 189 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.2 28.6 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.2 25.5 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 160 160 160 158 151 144 138 131 124 118 112 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -51.4 -51.3 -51.6 -51.6 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 4 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 83 84 85 86 85 83 80 79 76 74 72 69 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 14 17 17 17 17 850 MB ENV VOR 27 30 31 29 34 35 43 59 58 64 40 24 16 200 MB DIV 73 84 81 87 95 90 89 95 64 61 33 15 9 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -4 -1 0 3 1 2 4 3 LAND (KM) 805 795 788 755 738 744 627 638 655 679 717 777 828 LAT (DEG N) 12.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 6 8 10 11 12 11 10 7 6 6 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 40 32 24 21 22 30 16 4 2 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 30. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 22. 29. 34. 36. 36. 34. 31. 30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP982015 INVEST 09/05/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP982015 INVEST 09/05/15 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING