* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 31 34 40 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 31 34 40 41 42 44 47 49 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 26 26 25 26 29 33 36 39 41 43 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 20 17 14 7 12 20 22 23 24 20 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 -1 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 SHEAR DIR 299 314 336 351 357 345 257 255 262 261 252 253 277 SST (C) 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 129 131 133 133 131 123 119 117 116 115 114 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 112 113 115 117 117 115 107 102 97 96 96 95 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.4 -54.9 -55.0 -55.3 -55.3 -55.9 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 11 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 39 45 47 52 55 55 49 44 39 39 40 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 6 6 8 8 9 9 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -45 -47 -29 -29 -52 -66 -69 -79 -70 -56 -29 -8 200 MB DIV -24 -35 -10 12 0 -6 0 -3 20 -1 -7 -29 -19 700-850 TADV 3 2 0 -4 -6 2 3 8 2 0 -5 -1 -5 LAND (KM) 2320 2348 2376 2437 2481 2388 2288 2216 2180 2072 1977 1891 1814 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.2 24.6 25.3 25.9 27.3 28.9 30.5 31.7 32.2 32.0 32.0 32.2 LONG(DEG W) 42.9 43.3 43.6 43.3 43.0 41.5 40.0 38.2 36.3 34.8 33.8 32.8 31.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 7 8 10 11 11 9 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 25 23 21 10 10 9 3 4 5 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 808 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 15. 18. 19. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. 1. 4. 10. 11. 12. 14. 17. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 55.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED