* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 40 42 46 48 49 46 45 43 42 42 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 40 42 46 48 49 46 45 43 42 42 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 41 43 47 49 48 46 44 42 40 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 7 6 10 13 15 16 21 23 22 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 10 8 7 5 4 8 9 8 5 5 2 2 SHEAR DIR 124 126 160 218 216 224 233 235 234 241 235 262 262 SST (C) 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.5 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.5 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 143 141 138 132 130 133 132 132 130 131 138 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 145 144 140 138 131 129 132 131 130 128 128 134 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 54 53 51 47 49 50 48 46 45 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 15 16 16 14 13 13 12 12 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 31 30 26 22 10 7 3 -7 -6 -17 -15 200 MB DIV 17 -5 -16 -16 -11 4 10 -1 22 -14 -5 -18 -13 700-850 TADV -3 -2 3 4 3 -3 -7 -7 1 2 -2 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 1041 1169 1299 1435 1571 1877 1863 1655 1465 1285 1149 1061 876 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.1 15.4 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 26.9 28.1 29.4 30.7 32.0 34.9 37.6 40.6 43.7 46.8 49.6 52.4 54.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 8 11 15 17 15 11 21 26 22 21 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 11. 10. 8. 7. 7. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 29.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)