* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 49 45 43 39 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 49 45 43 39 32 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 50 45 41 38 31 26 22 20 18 16 15 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 21 23 24 22 23 17 21 26 25 24 36 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 11 6 5 5 3 5 4 0 0 5 -4 1 SHEAR DIR 267 261 262 256 261 285 285 281 287 291 267 255 242 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.4 26.4 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 129 128 128 125 125 129 132 136 140 145 146 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.8 -50.7 -50.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 50 53 56 55 55 58 60 65 66 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 31 30 28 26 23 21 20 19 17 20 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 63 39 39 32 21 17 20 14 16 20 33 200 MB DIV 26 32 29 5 0 -25 -21 -16 -22 -3 28 6 60 700-850 TADV 28 18 18 19 22 6 3 0 -7 -1 -4 -1 3 LAND (KM) 863 850 843 832 825 792 730 633 512 416 317 255 312 LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.8 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.2 25.4 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.5 24.5 24.7 LONG(DEG W) 147.0 147.4 147.8 148.3 148.8 149.9 150.9 152.2 154.0 155.7 157.4 159.2 161.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 5 5 7 8 7 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 1 3 5 5 5 4 1 2 4 2 15 22 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -20. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -18. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -10. -12. -16. -23. -30. -36. -41. -46. -50. -53. -47. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.3/ -0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING