* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152015 09/06/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 64 68 70 67 63 59 57 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 46 56 64 68 70 67 63 59 57 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 40 43 52 61 67 69 64 57 52 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 10 8 6 5 3 8 9 17 14 13 11 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -2 -3 -6 -3 -1 -4 -1 -7 -5 -6 -4 SHEAR DIR 36 31 31 24 36 81 158 168 144 162 152 163 175 SST (C) 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.7 29.6 28.9 28.2 27.6 27.2 26.6 25.9 25.3 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 162 162 162 163 162 155 147 139 134 128 120 114 111 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.0 -51.4 -50.7 -51.4 -50.7 -51.3 -51.0 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 84 84 81 76 74 72 69 70 71 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 18 21 21 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 27 26 26 30 33 30 49 59 70 50 44 33 34 200 MB DIV 87 74 74 82 93 68 100 58 73 19 24 2 21 700-850 TADV -3 -4 -3 -1 -3 -7 1 1 3 1 4 4 8 LAND (KM) 720 690 660 625 616 593 561 607 625 660 690 724 774 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 13 13 11 7 6 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 53 38 26 23 29 26 7 3 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 20. 25. 27. 27. 27. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -16. -16. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 26. 34. 38. 40. 37. 33. 29. 27. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING