* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 49 49 48 48 48 50 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 39 45 49 49 48 48 48 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 34 38 43 46 46 47 47 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 19 18 15 12 7 18 21 25 25 27 20 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -1 -1 0 0 -7 -4 -5 -4 -5 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 323 337 349 357 4 253 258 261 267 262 271 271 284 SST (C) 27.6 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.3 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 134 134 129 123 119 116 115 114 113 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 118 119 118 113 106 101 98 96 95 94 94 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -56.0 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 10 9 7 6 4 4 4 5 5 700-500 MB RH 45 48 51 55 53 48 44 42 41 40 42 42 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 6 6 5 6 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -44 -47 -23 -21 -32 -50 -62 -67 -72 -74 -60 -54 -37 200 MB DIV -33 -11 16 1 -9 11 -11 7 5 17 -9 -18 -15 700-850 TADV 2 2 -3 -4 1 0 6 4 0 -2 0 -2 -3 LAND (KM) 2380 2450 2481 2413 2346 2263 2202 2169 2136 2020 1874 1792 1757 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.2 25.9 26.8 27.6 29.1 30.6 31.8 32.7 33.0 32.6 32.1 31.5 LONG(DEG W) 43.3 43.1 43.0 42.4 41.8 40.1 38.3 36.8 35.3 33.8 32.3 31.6 31.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 9 10 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 22 22 21 16 10 10 8 3 3 2 1 1 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 9 CX,CY: -3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 854 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 15. 19. 19. 18. 18. 18. 20. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 56.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)