* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 46 49 52 57 57 55 54 49 46 45 45 V (KT) LAND 40 44 46 49 52 57 57 55 54 49 46 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 46 49 52 57 57 56 54 50 47 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 6 5 5 5 9 14 15 20 23 26 24 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 9 7 5 6 10 8 6 7 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 110 149 200 212 214 224 241 245 234 238 263 275 262 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.7 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 142 139 135 132 135 134 132 131 130 134 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 144 141 136 132 135 134 130 128 126 130 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -53.2 -53.4 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 56 54 53 52 53 50 50 49 49 45 47 46 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 13 14 16 15 14 14 12 11 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 35 32 23 21 20 16 7 6 -5 -8 -13 -5 200 MB DIV -5 -10 -25 -16 -12 -3 21 24 5 5 -1 6 -7 700-850 TADV -2 1 3 2 -1 -3 -9 -5 2 -3 -6 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1167 1306 1445 1592 1739 1929 1690 1485 1306 1169 1101 999 798 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.4 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 LONG(DEG W) 28.0 29.3 30.7 32.1 33.5 36.3 39.4 42.5 45.4 48.1 50.5 53.0 55.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 12 14 18 18 14 14 27 30 20 23 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 9. 12. 17. 17. 15. 14. 9. 6. 5. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)