* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 43 41 38 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 46 43 41 38 31 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 43 40 37 31 27 23 20 19 17 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 26 25 26 18 19 18 20 24 29 30 38 40 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 5 1 4 4 4 7 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 265 266 267 266 274 280 276 282 287 292 285 298 284 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 130 130 129 129 128 127 128 132 136 139 140 144 147 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -51.2 -51.1 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 49 52 52 53 54 56 55 58 60 58 56 58 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 28 27 25 23 20 18 18 17 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 70 60 46 34 32 21 13 7 8 8 1 10 16 200 MB DIV 22 4 -10 -9 -27 -16 -27 -18 -16 36 -16 -8 -3 700-850 TADV 14 9 15 15 4 2 -3 -5 -9 -9 -9 -3 0 LAND (KM) 822 810 806 781 762 722 646 527 410 338 337 315 376 LAT (DEG N) 22.6 23.2 23.8 24.2 24.5 25.1 25.3 25.1 24.6 24.6 25.1 25.0 24.6 LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.1 148.5 149.0 149.6 150.7 152.0 153.7 155.4 157.0 158.3 160.1 162.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 4 8 7 9 10 3 1 4 2 12 11 20 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -14. -16. -19. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -19. -25. -32. -38. -41. -49. -55. -56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.2/ -0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING