* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152015 09/06/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 41 47 58 63 68 68 62 57 53 50 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 41 47 58 63 68 68 62 57 53 50 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 43 52 60 64 64 60 54 50 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 11 8 5 5 8 10 11 11 14 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -6 -5 -3 -4 -2 -5 -4 -5 -5 -5 SHEAR DIR 23 19 16 33 42 93 121 122 134 127 146 137 155 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 28.8 28.2 27.7 27.4 26.8 25.9 25.4 25.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 160 160 158 153 146 140 136 130 121 116 118 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -50.8 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 85 83 81 75 73 66 60 58 53 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 17 18 20 20 22 23 22 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 30 29 33 28 22 19 28 42 69 53 41 31 26 200 MB DIV 85 70 83 104 92 78 104 87 73 17 13 3 0 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -5 -6 -1 -1 1 1 0 3 2 4 LAND (KM) 736 708 692 697 713 625 585 635 658 711 769 831 942 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 14.0 14.7 15.4 16.1 17.7 19.0 19.8 20.4 21.0 21.8 22.3 22.6 LONG(DEG W) 107.9 108.6 109.3 110.1 110.8 112.3 113.8 115.3 116.6 117.9 119.1 120.6 122.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 6 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 27 21 22 24 26 24 8 3 2 5 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 26. 27. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 7. 7. 11. 12. 10. 9. 8. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 17. 28. 33. 38. 38. 32. 27. 23. 20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING