* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 37 41 46 49 49 49 47 46 47 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 37 41 46 49 49 49 47 46 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 32 35 39 43 45 46 46 46 47 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 19 18 17 9 14 18 21 22 25 19 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6 -3 -5 0 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 341 350 1 14 9 272 275 277 280 279 294 304 326 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 134 134 132 126 121 118 117 115 115 115 115 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 115 118 119 116 109 102 100 98 96 96 95 95 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -54.9 -55.3 -55.6 -56.2 -56.1 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 47 50 54 54 52 47 45 44 47 47 45 41 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -51 -30 -21 -29 -40 -55 -60 -78 -89 -63 -33 -36 -40 200 MB DIV -13 11 5 -11 3 5 -4 8 1 -4 -41 -15 -22 700-850 TADV 1 -3 -6 0 0 4 7 2 2 -2 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 2455 2488 2425 2365 2310 2240 2199 2195 2124 2016 1900 1818 1757 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.9 26.6 27.5 28.3 29.8 30.9 31.7 32.4 32.5 32.2 31.7 31.1 LONG(DEG W) 43.1 42.8 42.5 41.7 40.9 39.1 37.8 36.5 35.3 34.0 32.8 32.1 31.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 11 11 10 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 23 12 9 7 4 1 2 3 2 2 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 733 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 15. 17. 18. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 7. 11. 16. 19. 19. 19. 17. 16. 17. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED