* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 43 45 48 50 51 51 48 44 41 39 37 37 V (KT) LAND 40 43 45 48 50 51 51 48 44 41 39 37 37 V (KT) LGE mod 40 43 45 47 49 51 50 48 45 42 39 38 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 4 4 7 13 12 18 22 26 23 30 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 10 8 5 10 11 7 6 4 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 141 208 221 203 226 247 247 235 235 241 266 261 260 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 138 135 133 132 135 134 132 132 131 136 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 138 135 132 131 135 134 130 130 129 132 136 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -52.7 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 700-500 MB RH 54 52 49 50 49 48 48 47 47 46 45 47 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 14 15 16 15 14 13 11 10 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 39 37 28 24 23 19 13 9 2 -8 -11 -6 -16 200 MB DIV 3 -10 -9 -2 -1 11 10 26 -7 8 -2 -7 2 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 -3 -3 -12 -12 2 0 -8 -5 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1284 1436 1589 1731 1873 1833 1617 1435 1258 1132 1039 887 762 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.4 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 29.2 30.7 32.1 33.4 34.8 37.5 40.3 43.1 46.0 48.9 51.8 54.3 56.4 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 13 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 10 11 14 16 12 19 28 30 19 27 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -21. -22. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -1. -3. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED