* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 45 42 37 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 45 42 37 33 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 48 45 42 40 35 31 27 24 23 22 21 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 23 18 18 20 18 21 27 35 27 38 34 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 4 5 3 2 2 -2 -7 2 -1 -1 8 SHEAR DIR 266 270 266 265 277 275 270 276 291 285 293 301 279 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.2 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 127 126 125 125 127 131 135 139 141 142 143 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.4 -50.4 -50.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 52 54 54 56 53 56 56 56 57 59 67 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 28 27 25 24 22 20 17 20 17 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 52 35 27 28 12 10 0 4 -2 4 -1 12 15 200 MB DIV 14 1 -1 -22 -21 -25 -11 -18 -4 29 -20 10 8 700-850 TADV 21 19 12 3 4 0 -3 -6 -3 -6 -1 -2 5 LAND (KM) 860 846 838 815 789 750 662 564 464 383 355 379 455 LAT (DEG N) 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.5 26.0 25.9 25.7 25.5 25.4 25.4 25.4 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.4 148.9 149.5 150.2 151.3 152.6 154.2 156.1 157.9 159.4 160.9 162.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 5 6 8 8 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 3 3 0 0 0 4 11 8 9 20 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 701 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -13. -19. -24. -29. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -10. -14. -17. -13. -18. -14. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -8. -13. -17. -24. -30. -37. -38. -48. -48. -51. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: -0.1/ -0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/06/15 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING