* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152015 09/06/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 45 49 55 61 72 78 78 73 66 59 55 50 V (KT) LAND 40 45 49 55 61 72 78 78 73 66 59 55 50 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 51 56 63 73 79 79 72 63 54 48 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 12 7 6 6 9 12 11 17 8 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -5 -5 -1 -3 -4 -4 -8 -7 -3 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 25 21 32 47 66 98 110 133 117 127 129 116 187 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.4 27.8 27.2 26.6 25.8 25.3 24.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 161 160 160 159 155 148 141 135 128 119 115 112 113 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.2 -50.3 -51.1 -50.4 -50.8 -50.4 -50.8 -50.5 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 4 4 700-500 MB RH 85 84 85 83 82 79 75 69 64 63 58 50 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 20 21 24 26 27 26 26 24 25 23 850 MB ENV VOR 30 36 30 28 20 35 37 57 60 68 33 32 19 200 MB DIV 89 98 112 99 73 105 90 51 19 45 22 0 -3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -6 -7 -6 -1 0 1 0 0 0 4 -2 LAND (KM) 727 712 715 730 692 585 581 562 566 620 680 766 901 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.5 15.2 16.1 16.9 18.7 19.9 20.9 21.7 22.4 22.8 23.3 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.6 109.4 110.1 111.0 111.8 113.4 114.6 115.8 116.7 117.8 119.0 120.8 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 10 8 7 6 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 22 28 34 11 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -13. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 9. 12. 14. 12. 12. 10. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 15. 21. 32. 38. 38. 33. 26. 19. 15. 10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 FIFTEEN 09/06/15 12 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING