* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRED AL062015 09/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 44 45 45 46 47 50 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 35 39 44 45 45 46 47 50 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 24 25 27 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 16 14 6 7 16 17 21 19 22 14 13 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 -1 0 -4 -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 355 352 7 353 284 276 270 278 276 297 302 322 323 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.5 27.3 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 133 131 128 122 118 115 114 114 112 112 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 119 121 119 116 113 104 100 95 95 96 93 94 99 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 -55.1 -55.4 -55.6 -56.3 -56.4 -56.7 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 51 54 53 51 47 42 39 39 43 44 40 38 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 8 9 8 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -19 -15 -30 -42 -65 -79 -93 -109 -88 -51 -26 -31 -44 200 MB DIV 13 2 -8 1 3 -7 2 -2 5 -38 -21 -22 -18 700-850 TADV -6 -3 -1 -2 -3 4 3 0 -1 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 2471 2401 2334 2299 2269 2240 2154 2106 2042 1930 1758 1701 1722 LAT (DEG N) 26.0 27.0 27.9 28.7 29.5 30.8 31.9 32.6 32.9 32.9 32.7 32.0 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 43.0 42.1 41.3 40.2 39.1 37.2 35.9 35.0 34.1 32.8 30.9 30.6 31.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 13 12 9 6 4 5 7 5 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 19 10 10 8 4 2 3 2 1 1 1 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 819 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 9. 7. 5. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 19. 20. 20. 21. 23. 25. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.7 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062015 FRED 09/06/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062015 FRED 09/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)