* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 48 49 50 48 46 44 41 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LAND 45 47 48 49 50 48 46 44 41 38 37 37 37 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 49 50 48 46 43 41 39 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 4 10 16 23 23 19 23 23 18 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 9 8 7 7 1 3 2 0 0 1 0 SHEAR DIR 227 232 229 244 253 264 264 250 252 256 257 259 260 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.9 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 138 134 133 130 131 134 132 131 130 130 136 142 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 138 133 132 129 129 132 130 128 127 126 132 137 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -53.0 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 51 48 49 47 46 47 45 50 47 50 48 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 21 22 24 17 12 5 -15 -16 -19 -13 -18 200 MB DIV -1 12 -3 -4 4 7 26 20 14 -17 -1 0 5 700-850 TADV 4 3 -2 0 -3 -8 -1 2 -5 -6 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1414 1556 1699 1842 1985 1771 1563 1408 1273 1173 1106 908 746 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.9 LONG(DEG W) 30.5 31.8 33.2 34.5 35.9 38.6 41.3 43.9 46.5 49.1 51.7 54.2 56.5 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 11 12 12 14 12 28 29 28 21 27 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -14. -16. -17. -20. -21. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. -8. -8. -8. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/06/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)