* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/06/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 65 71 77 84 87 82 73 63 56 47 41 V (KT) LAND 50 57 65 71 77 84 87 82 73 63 56 47 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 60 69 79 87 94 92 80 69 57 48 41 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 7 7 7 11 9 15 12 8 11 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -1 0 -4 -2 -4 -6 -7 -4 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 15 30 46 64 85 144 113 134 118 143 155 174 204 SST (C) 29.5 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.0 27.5 26.9 26.0 25.1 24.6 24.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 159 155 152 144 138 131 122 113 108 106 107 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -51.3 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -50.5 -50.9 -50.5 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 85 84 84 82 76 74 67 64 63 57 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 21 22 25 26 26 24 23 21 20 19 850 MB ENV VOR 38 31 29 24 29 49 61 62 54 32 23 16 22 200 MB DIV 105 117 113 85 102 118 83 39 22 15 2 9 4 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -7 -5 -2 0 0 1 -1 0 2 4 4 LAND (KM) 726 719 731 688 632 591 568 556 589 627 676 744 850 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 15.2 16.1 17.0 17.8 19.4 20.5 21.4 22.3 23.2 23.9 24.5 24.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.3 110.2 111.0 111.9 112.7 114.3 115.3 116.3 117.4 118.7 120.2 121.5 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 9 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 22 29 33 18 6 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 8. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 12. 10. 8. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 21. 27. 34. 37. 32. 23. 13. 6. -3. -9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/06/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/06/15 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING