* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 46 44 40 37 34 33 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 46 44 40 37 34 33 31 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 48 48 48 46 43 39 36 35 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 10 16 19 24 24 29 26 27 27 34 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 3 3 0 2 0 3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 219 230 253 259 256 261 263 261 264 275 258 259 260 SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.7 28.3 28.3 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 135 133 131 131 134 133 132 131 135 143 142 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 133 131 130 134 133 132 130 135 142 139 140 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 15 700-500 MB RH 48 48 46 45 44 46 46 46 47 46 48 47 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 33 22 19 17 11 4 -2 -20 -26 -38 -35 -48 -41 200 MB DIV 6 -2 -17 -12 -5 3 22 0 11 8 7 -6 6 700-850 TADV 4 0 -2 -4 -6 -6 0 -2 -8 -2 -1 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1552 1699 1848 1968 1843 1624 1437 1265 1142 995 789 674 390 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.4 16.9 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 31.8 33.2 34.6 36.1 37.6 40.5 43.6 46.8 50.0 53.3 56.5 59.5 62.2 STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 13 12 14 12 24 29 22 24 38 60 48 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -8. -11. -12. -14. -15. -15. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.0 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/07/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)