* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 75 82 86 89 87 81 69 59 52 44 37 V (KT) LAND 60 67 75 82 86 89 87 81 69 59 52 44 37 V (KT) LGE mod 60 70 80 89 94 97 90 76 62 51 43 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 8 7 9 11 11 12 7 9 9 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 0 -2 -5 -2 -6 -6 -4 -3 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 35 36 46 67 109 138 125 111 141 177 170 221 218 SST (C) 29.5 29.3 28.9 28.6 28.3 27.5 26.6 25.9 25.2 24.6 24.1 24.2 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 154 151 148 139 128 121 113 107 102 103 104 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -51.0 -51.1 -50.7 -50.2 -50.9 -50.1 -50.7 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 84 83 81 78 74 70 67 66 63 56 51 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 23 26 26 26 27 27 26 24 23 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 31 28 25 33 46 55 68 45 40 17 18 16 20 200 MB DIV 114 105 79 94 105 75 63 -3 19 23 -11 -1 -5 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -8 -4 -1 -1 0 -2 1 2 6 1 4 LAND (KM) 684 702 650 588 550 522 488 499 504 521 583 671 779 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.4 17.3 18.2 19.1 20.7 21.9 22.8 23.7 24.4 25.2 25.6 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 110.9 111.8 112.6 113.4 114.8 115.9 116.7 117.5 118.6 120.1 121.3 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 12 11 9 7 6 6 6 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 32 30 17 10 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 11 CX,CY: -6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 7. 8. 11. 12. 10. 7. 5. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 22. 26. 29. 27. 21. 9. -1. -8. -16. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 999.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING