* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 47 47 47 47 45 42 41 40 40 39 41 V (KT) LAND 45 46 47 47 47 47 45 42 41 40 40 39 41 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 47 46 45 43 40 39 38 39 39 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 10 13 17 16 17 18 24 20 18 27 34 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 11 10 11 7 5 4 3 5 3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 273 261 260 261 252 257 247 261 267 254 256 255 267 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.4 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 131 130 133 135 132 131 131 139 143 143 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 135 133 130 130 133 136 132 129 129 138 140 138 139 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 14 14 15 14 700-500 MB RH 48 46 43 43 46 45 47 43 45 42 45 44 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 24 22 17 15 13 7 2 -18 -10 -21 -16 -23 -24 200 MB DIV -4 -13 -11 0 16 20 12 22 4 1 -6 13 12 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -7 -11 -11 -5 -1 -5 -8 -7 -6 -3 -5 LAND (KM) 1688 1852 1968 1846 1729 1514 1337 1212 1117 877 711 545 299 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.5 15.9 16.5 17.1 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 33.1 34.6 36.2 37.6 39.1 42.2 45.6 48.7 51.7 54.8 58.0 60.7 63.0 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 15 14 15 16 16 15 15 16 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 12 14 14 13 24 31 21 29 54 57 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 11. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/07/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)