* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 36 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 36 30 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 37 32 28 23 20 17 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 22 25 25 27 25 34 40 41 45 49 49 42 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 0 -4 0 0 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 1 0 SHEAR DIR 273 274 277 280 283 269 277 289 290 290 291 301 291 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 123 123 124 127 131 132 130 131 131 131 130 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 49 51 52 53 51 50 51 55 56 57 55 59 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 21 20 20 17 15 13 12 10 10 10 7 850 MB ENV VOR 15 1 0 -8 -15 -20 -21 -39 -32 -27 -7 -12 -3 200 MB DIV -11 -26 -40 -37 -32 -2 10 -9 -7 5 -7 -33 -13 700-850 TADV -1 1 3 0 -9 -4 -11 -8 -7 -4 -7 -8 12 LAND (KM) 880 849 825 792 761 695 619 577 588 600 627 699 821 LAT (DEG N) 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 149.4 150.1 150.8 151.6 152.3 154.0 155.8 157.1 158.2 159.2 160.4 161.7 163.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 5 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 11 11 10 11 13 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 685 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -12. -22. -32. -41. -47. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -18. -20. -20. -19. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -9. -15. -22. -33. -42. -54. -63. -70. -77. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##