* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 78 85 89 91 93 84 72 60 46 36 29 24 V (KT) LAND 70 78 85 89 91 93 84 72 60 46 36 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 70 79 87 92 94 91 81 67 54 44 36 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 9 8 11 9 11 7 6 7 3 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 0 -3 -4 -7 -3 -6 -2 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 48 55 64 99 113 104 111 114 155 151 171 209 217 SST (C) 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 27.9 27.0 26.3 25.4 24.7 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 152 150 144 133 125 116 108 103 103 105 107 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -50.2 -50.7 -50.5 -50.5 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 86 85 81 77 74 67 64 58 54 46 42 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 25 25 24 27 26 24 23 20 19 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 32 30 41 48 48 72 47 50 32 29 24 22 13 200 MB DIV 106 89 92 104 91 61 2 14 13 0 -5 0 -17 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -2 -1 0 -2 0 -2 3 3 3 2 3 LAND (KM) 716 667 599 549 532 486 461 498 494 520 589 696 837 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.1 18.0 19.0 20.0 21.4 22.4 23.5 24.4 24.9 24.7 24.9 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.4 113.2 114.1 115.3 116.0 117.1 118.2 119.1 119.8 121.2 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 13 11 8 7 7 6 4 5 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 30 33 20 11 5 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -14. -16. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 3. 8. 7. 5. 4. 0. -3. -6. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 8. 15. 19. 21. 23. 14. 2. -10. -23. -34. -41. -46. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 19.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 97.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 54% is 4.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 35% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 27% is 4.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 5.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##