* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 38 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 38 35 29 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 41 39 34 29 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 23 23 27 26 29 38 39 42 44 46 41 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -2 0 2 0 -2 -1 -3 0 -2 2 -8 SHEAR DIR 276 275 278 276 275 271 289 289 286 281 277 266 274 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.3 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 124 124 123 123 125 127 127 127 126 125 127 126 122 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.9 -51.2 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 47 48 52 57 58 60 61 63 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 21 20 20 17 15 13 12 12 12 12 8 850 MB ENV VOR 8 1 -5 -7 -12 -12 -25 -34 -33 -19 -15 -5 40 200 MB DIV -25 -38 -38 -31 -9 -1 3 -7 10 16 2 23 32 700-850 TADV 2 3 0 -6 -7 -6 -6 -5 -2 -1 4 10 21 LAND (KM) 849 821 799 761 731 657 589 546 555 573 622 754 937 LAT (DEG N) 26.2 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.3 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 150.1 150.8 151.5 152.3 153.1 154.9 156.6 158.1 159.4 160.5 161.6 162.9 164.3 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 5 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 7 6 1 9 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 726 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -6. -14. -24. -34. -42. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -24. -32. -42. -50. -58. -63. -70. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -28.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 34.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##