* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 87 92 94 94 91 80 65 52 41 32 25 18 V (KT) LAND 80 87 92 94 94 91 80 65 52 41 32 25 18 V (KT) LGE mod 80 88 93 95 94 86 73 59 48 41 36 32 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 7 4 6 7 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 -2 -2 -4 -7 -4 -3 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 50 63 96 130 117 117 104 160 241 197 232 226 250 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.2 28.0 27.5 26.8 26.0 25.1 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 150 147 144 139 131 123 113 106 101 101 103 103 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.5 -50.0 -50.6 -50.8 -49.9 -50.5 -50.1 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 84 83 80 77 75 71 67 63 60 54 47 43 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 26 26 28 27 25 22 20 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 35 48 61 60 58 63 40 28 16 31 33 29 22 200 MB DIV 95 93 107 105 98 57 -5 9 8 0 7 -10 -10 700-850 TADV -6 -3 0 0 -1 0 -2 0 1 4 0 3 1 LAND (KM) 660 593 550 527 503 450 463 431 416 488 593 715 827 LAT (DEG N) 17.2 18.2 19.1 20.0 20.8 22.1 23.4 24.7 25.6 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 LONG(DEG W) 111.8 112.6 113.4 114.0 114.6 115.6 116.6 117.6 118.4 119.5 120.6 121.9 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 27 15 8 5 2 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -10. -16. -21. -25. -28. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -18. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 12. 14. 14. 11. 0. -15. -28. -39. -48. -55. -62. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 43% is 3.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##