* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 33 32 29 29 30 31 31 34 37 V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 33 32 29 29 30 31 31 34 37 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 35 34 31 29 27 26 26 26 26 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 17 19 20 21 24 24 24 21 29 32 29 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 9 8 6 6 2 2 2 0 0 -1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 253 248 244 247 249 253 262 266 262 265 263 277 297 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.9 29.0 28.9 29.1 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 139 138 137 140 142 152 154 151 154 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 142 142 139 138 140 142 155 154 149 148 147 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 700-500 MB RH 42 44 46 45 44 48 45 49 47 50 51 57 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 20 17 12 5 -4 -5 -25 -20 -24 -26 -26 -6 -3 200 MB DIV -12 6 7 -2 5 8 23 3 7 -9 11 8 21 700-850 TADV -3 -6 -7 -5 -2 -1 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 -2 LAND (KM) 1936 1803 1679 1557 1450 1271 1155 1020 753 629 373 131 75 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.2 14.4 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 36.7 38.3 39.9 41.6 43.4 46.7 49.7 52.9 56.4 59.6 62.6 65.1 67.2 STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 16 15 16 16 15 14 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 8 9 20 29 26 21 38 59 47 44 56 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -11. -11. -10. -9. -9. -6. -3. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.4 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/07/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)