* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 39 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 39 33 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 43 41 39 33 28 24 21 19 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 19 18 19 22 28 31 34 41 50 55 56 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 6 2 1 0 1 0 2 -5 -5 -6 SHEAR DIR 284 287 276 271 269 274 289 281 278 273 281 286 271 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.3 26.1 25.7 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 124 124 126 128 129 129 127 125 123 119 112 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -53.2 -54.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 50 50 48 48 48 48 53 57 56 57 57 56 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 23 21 18 15 15 15 16 17 17 13 850 MB ENV VOR 10 4 3 0 -3 -2 -18 -19 -15 -4 9 31 108 200 MB DIV -38 -34 -22 14 6 -30 -10 3 16 6 3 9 99 700-850 TADV 5 1 -4 -1 -5 -8 -5 -6 -6 -8 -3 6 34 LAND (KM) 850 810 775 733 697 614 535 503 533 594 682 813 962 LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.6 27.0 27.5 28.1 29.1 30.4 LONG(DEG W) 150.2 150.9 151.6 152.4 153.2 155.0 156.7 158.1 159.2 160.4 161.5 162.3 162.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 6 6 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 8 9 7 5 6 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -4. -10. -19. -29. -39. -47. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -2. -6. -10. -11. -11. -9. -8. -8. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -21. -27. -34. -41. -49. -58. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##