* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/07/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 96 98 101 99 90 74 61 47 35 25 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 90 96 98 101 99 90 74 61 47 35 25 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 97 101 100 98 85 69 55 45 37 32 27 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 13 12 13 12 10 8 10 5 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -4 -7 -5 -5 -1 3 1 0 SHEAR DIR 62 93 111 115 121 109 136 172 196 221 221 214 242 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.6 25.8 25.0 24.5 24.2 24.2 24.3 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 152 149 146 141 137 129 120 111 106 102 102 103 103 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 85 81 77 76 75 68 67 62 58 50 45 40 38 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 29 28 29 26 25 23 21 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 47 52 60 62 76 55 46 25 31 19 30 24 31 200 MB DIV 105 123 110 102 82 19 -8 6 2 7 7 -6 -7 700-850 TADV -8 -4 0 -1 -1 0 -2 5 1 3 0 1 3 LAND (KM) 615 564 537 531 489 445 447 419 447 525 625 723 793 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.7 19.6 20.4 21.1 22.4 23.8 24.9 25.5 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.6 LONG(DEG W) 112.3 113.1 113.8 114.4 114.9 115.8 116.7 117.7 118.7 119.8 120.9 121.9 122.6 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 19 10 5 3 2 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 10 CX,CY: -5/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -11. -18. -25. -30. -35. -38. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. -18. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 8. 11. 9. 0. -16. -29. -43. -55. -65. -74. -80. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 104.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 32% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/07/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##