* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 09/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 58 61 63 74 77 74 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 53 58 61 63 74 77 74 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 38 44 50 57 69 70 59 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 23 20 16 17 20 16 15 7 7 2 3 8 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -5 -5 -2 -6 -3 -4 -2 4 2 3 SHEAR DIR 268 280 264 257 264 274 248 218 210 26 246 215 244 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.4 26.6 20.1 13.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 139 139 138 137 134 130 131 123 84 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 114 114 112 111 111 112 111 112 110 112 107 78 70 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.3 -55.4 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.0 -55.0 -54.8 -55.1 -55.2 -55.7 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 9 10 8 6 1 0 700-500 MB RH 34 35 35 37 37 39 41 44 44 52 56 55 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 10 11 8 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -63 -55 -47 -43 -33 -23 -33 -51 -48 44 54 -1 200 MB DIV -22 0 -5 -6 -13 -22 -10 0 9 11 49 51 24 700-850 TADV 0 1 0 0 -3 1 0 7 9 9 -10 -46 -11 LAND (KM) 1458 1451 1444 1440 1436 1417 1359 1241 1059 855 603 328 387 LAT (DEG N) 30.9 31.0 31.1 31.2 31.2 31.4 31.9 32.9 34.6 36.9 40.2 43.8 46.9 LONG(DEG W) 60.9 60.8 60.6 60.6 60.5 60.4 60.6 61.0 61.1 60.3 58.3 54.5 47.8 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 1 1 1 2 4 7 10 15 20 26 27 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 13 13 12 10 9 9 11 13 19 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):105/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 15 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. 1. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 28. 33. 36. 38. 49. 52. 49. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.3 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 09/08/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)