* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 81 82 82 80 73 64 50 40 31 23 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 80 81 82 82 80 73 64 50 40 31 23 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 80 80 79 76 66 54 45 38 33 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 11 12 13 7 5 5 6 4 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -1 -3 -5 -7 -5 -3 0 3 2 3 3 SHEAR DIR 77 97 96 95 98 105 157 206 211 259 260 283 266 SST (C) 28.5 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.3 24.0 24.0 24.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 149 149 144 140 134 125 117 109 104 100 100 100 103 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.6 -50.1 -49.6 -50.2 -49.7 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.4 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 3 3 2 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 82 78 78 77 74 69 66 62 54 49 43 41 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 30 30 29 28 28 24 22 20 18 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 46 51 53 77 62 40 40 33 39 33 21 17 6 200 MB DIV 125 98 85 67 64 8 29 8 -7 -9 -8 -6 -16 700-850 TADV -1 1 -3 -3 -1 -2 0 1 2 0 1 1 3 LAND (KM) 543 500 479 462 419 388 386 386 440 516 591 683 802 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.5 20.3 21.1 21.8 23.2 24.4 25.3 25.9 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.2 LONG(DEG W) 112.5 113.1 113.7 114.3 114.8 115.7 116.6 117.7 118.9 119.9 120.7 121.7 122.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 5 3 1 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 9 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -23. -27. -30. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -18. -19. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -5. -8. -10. -14. -18. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -16. -30. -40. -49. -57. -64. -69. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##