* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 34 33 32 32 32 32 33 32 32 35 38 40 V (KT) LAND 35 34 33 32 32 32 32 33 32 32 35 38 40 V (KT) LGE mod 35 33 32 31 30 28 27 26 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 20 20 19 22 24 24 23 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 7 4 1 2 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 242 239 242 253 271 283 269 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.4 29.0 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 139 136 138 140 145 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 142 140 138 139 142 147 158 158 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.2 -53.1 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 11 11 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 43 41 44 45 43 48 48 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 10 3 -1 -8 -24 -22 -25 -30 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -9 4 8 5 36 6 -3 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -6 -4 -2 -2 -8 -4 -1 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1648 1525 1415 1321 1233 1107 947 695 589 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.1 14.1 14.3 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.7 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 40.1 41.8 43.4 45.0 46.7 50.1 53.5 57.0 60.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 16 16 17 17 17 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 20 27 30 22 21 44 58 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. 0. 3. 5. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 3% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/08/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)