* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 09/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 51 55 57 61 69 67 61 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 51 55 57 61 69 67 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 37 42 47 52 60 67 61 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 17 18 21 19 14 12 12 4 5 5 24 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -5 -6 -3 -6 -5 -3 0 3 2 3 9 SHEAR DIR 275 266 259 267 275 244 224 182 140 224 248 241 263 SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.3 24.2 17.0 16.1 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 139 139 139 139 136 132 130 131 103 76 75 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 111 111 111 112 112 110 111 113 91 72 71 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.3 -55.1 -54.8 -54.9 -54.7 -54.5 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.6 -56.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 8 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 37 38 39 40 41 42 44 47 51 54 55 46 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 6 4 5 10 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR -69 -65 -54 -50 -47 -31 -33 -43 -46 22 18 -44 -88 200 MB DIV -10 -5 -6 -5 -13 0 -7 5 26 41 40 27 0 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -2 2 3 8 7 14 7 1 -18 12 LAND (KM) 1378 1389 1392 1392 1390 1357 1277 1124 931 735 519 230 636 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.3 31.3 31.4 31.4 31.7 32.4 33.8 35.8 38.6 42.0 45.0 46.7 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 61.8 61.7 61.6 61.5 61.5 61.7 61.8 61.2 59.6 56.5 51.4 44.5 STM SPEED (KT) 1 1 1 1 1 3 5 9 13 18 22 25 25 HEAT CONTENT 15 14 13 13 13 10 9 10 13 14 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 1 CX,CY: 1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 23. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 7. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 11. 12. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -3. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 26. 30. 32. 36. 44. 42. 36. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.0 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 09/08/2015 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED