* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 37 36 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 38 37 36 33 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 36 34 31 26 22 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 22 24 28 31 35 41 41 43 47 30 32 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 2 2 -1 0 -2 0 0 7 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 263 262 262 265 275 289 289 302 289 307 297 304 304 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 26.9 27.0 27.0 27.1 26.5 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 124 125 128 129 130 131 132 132 133 128 117 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.4 -51.6 -51.4 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 45 45 46 46 47 51 54 56 56 57 57 57 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 21 20 16 14 13 13 10 9 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 -6 0 -3 -7 -15 -22 -12 -1 -18 -24 0 59 200 MB DIV -3 4 -9 -13 -13 -12 -8 -2 -11 -39 -58 -28 19 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -10 -10 -10 -10 -13 -8 -16 -10 -1 15 28 LAND (KM) 805 760 721 671 627 539 476 445 459 511 609 773 977 LAT (DEG N) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.4 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.5 26.9 28.2 30.1 LONG(DEG W) 151.4 152.2 152.9 153.7 154.5 156.0 157.6 159.0 160.2 161.4 162.7 163.5 163.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 1 8 2 1 8 10 3 10 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -7. -15. -26. -37. -42. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -13. -15. -14. -19. -21. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -7. -14. -21. -30. -37. -52. -61. -71. -73. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##