* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 79 78 76 67 56 46 35 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 80 79 79 78 76 67 56 46 35 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 80 77 73 70 66 56 46 38 32 28 24 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 10 10 8 10 11 6 9 5 4 0 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -3 -5 -5 -4 0 1 5 4 7 0 SHEAR DIR 96 96 93 113 115 143 196 221 232 266 273 306 213 SST (C) 28.4 28.1 27.6 27.2 26.7 25.9 25.1 24.5 24.1 24.1 24.1 24.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 145 140 135 130 122 113 106 101 101 102 103 105 200 MB T (C) -50.4 -50.7 -50.4 -49.7 -49.9 -50.2 -50.2 -50.5 -50.2 -50.3 -50.3 -50.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 73 71 68 63 59 51 46 41 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 29 29 28 26 25 23 21 18 15 12 10 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 69 59 41 48 25 43 22 37 25 11 20 200 MB DIV 97 86 69 83 47 11 23 2 -5 0 -10 1 -6 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -1 0 0 4 5 2 7 4 6 3 LAND (KM) 491 469 460 424 405 417 416 447 502 585 686 811 939 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.2 21.0 21.7 22.3 23.6 24.8 25.5 25.9 26.1 26.2 26.2 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 112.9 113.5 114.1 114.7 115.2 116.2 117.5 118.7 119.6 120.6 121.7 123.0 124.3 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 8 8 8 7 6 4 5 5 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 6 3 1 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 0. 0. -4. -9. -15. -21. -25. -28. -31. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -17. -17. -17. -17. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -18. -21. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -13. -24. -34. -45. -55. -65. -73. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##