* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL922015 09/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 52 57 60 72 73 68 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 46 52 57 60 72 73 68 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 33 38 42 48 56 68 71 61 53 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 16 19 21 19 15 17 13 5 1 12 20 34 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -5 -2 -3 -6 -5 -6 -1 0 1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 259 263 270 279 267 239 202 204 188 204 229 255 264 SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.5 27.0 23.8 18.9 15.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 138 138 139 137 135 133 131 126 99 79 73 ADJ. POT. INT. 113 113 112 111 112 112 111 110 111 107 86 72 69 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.1 -54.8 -54.8 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.3 -54.5 -54.8 -55.7 -56.0 -57.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 9 9 9 8 9 8 5 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 39 40 41 41 43 45 51 56 64 60 54 48 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 3 11 10 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR -62 -53 -50 -52 -43 -34 -28 -26 61 54 45 -3 -42 200 MB DIV -1 -6 -5 -11 -21 0 19 24 27 45 59 3 33 700-850 TADV 0 1 -1 2 2 1 6 0 10 -23 -21 -6 0 LAND (KM) 1378 1361 1339 1317 1296 1233 1118 981 798 564 391 273 136 LAT (DEG N) 31.2 31.4 31.6 31.8 31.9 32.3 33.2 34.5 36.5 39.2 41.9 44.4 46.6 LONG(DEG W) 62.0 62.1 62.2 62.3 62.5 63.0 63.6 63.9 63.4 61.9 59.5 56.1 51.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 2 3 4 6 8 13 15 17 19 20 HEAT CONTENT 14 12 11 10 10 10 10 16 23 20 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 18. 21. 22. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 4. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. 2. 1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 21. 27. 32. 35. 47. 48. 43. 38. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.8 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 51.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 37.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922015 INVEST 09/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922015 INVEST 09/08/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED