* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 41 38 34 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 43 41 38 34 28 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 42 40 37 31 26 22 19 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 28 30 35 37 37 43 41 53 48 47 32 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 0 1 1 -1 0 0 1 -2 1 1 1 7 SHEAR DIR 267 265 268 274 289 285 288 281 300 309 301 293 236 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 125 127 129 130 134 134 134 132 128 123 115 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 46 47 47 47 47 53 58 60 61 62 61 64 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 18 17 14 12 12 11 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -7 -4 -3 -10 -20 -23 -29 -12 -10 -4 2 87 105 200 MB DIV -4 -14 -17 -24 -11 4 -6 17 -29 -42 -43 42 24 700-850 TADV -2 -11 -11 -11 -6 -11 -4 -5 -8 -3 11 31 0 LAND (KM) 734 694 661 620 570 492 410 412 476 598 764 918 1072 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.9 28.1 29.3 30.6 LONG(DEG W) 152.3 153.1 153.8 154.6 155.3 156.8 158.4 159.9 161.3 162.5 163.5 164.3 164.9 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 6 2 4 11 23 7 11 5 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 720 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -32. -44. -52. -55. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -13. -13. -14. -17. -23. -25. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -26. -33. -43. -56. -71. -77. -76. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##