* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 105 106 102 95 80 60 42 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 105 106 102 95 80 60 42 26 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 105 103 96 88 70 55 43 35 29 24 20 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 9 9 9 10 6 9 11 13 11 11 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -2 -3 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 2 4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 85 89 104 116 133 168 240 221 245 245 260 247 269 SST (C) 27.9 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.1 24.3 23.8 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.8 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 132 127 123 113 104 98 96 96 97 98 100 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.3 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -49.8 -50.3 -50.1 -50.2 -50.1 -50.4 -50.6 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 78 74 70 66 60 56 50 47 45 41 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 29 28 27 24 20 18 16 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 52 73 62 48 33 43 34 41 30 24 3 2 -4 200 MB DIV 78 67 77 55 11 14 4 -9 -7 -5 0 -20 -12 700-850 TADV -7 -3 0 0 -1 4 1 5 1 3 1 3 1 LAND (KM) 444 417 378 378 402 401 414 483 567 648 719 807 895 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.5 22.2 22.9 23.5 24.8 25.9 26.6 27.1 27.3 27.4 27.4 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 113.6 114.2 114.7 115.4 116.0 117.3 118.6 119.7 120.7 121.7 122.7 123.7 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 5 3 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 12 CX,CY: -4/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -5. -8. -16. -25. -34. -42. -48. -53. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. PERSISTENCE 6. 9. 10. 9. 6. 3. 2. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 6. 2. -5. -20. -40. -58. -74. -85. -96.-103.-110. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##