* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 34 30 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 37 34 30 27 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 37 35 32 30 25 22 20 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 26 27 32 35 34 37 41 46 53 41 31 45 69 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 0 0 2 0 1 -2 2 0 7 2 SHEAR DIR 261 260 271 280 284 276 288 289 304 295 274 209 197 SST (C) 26.3 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.2 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.1 26.4 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 129 131 132 135 138 140 139 137 134 127 119 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.5 -52.9 -52.7 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 46 45 45 45 48 54 55 57 59 61 64 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 20 18 17 15 13 15 13 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -1 -2 -14 -20 -21 -24 -9 -2 37 87 149 145 200 MB DIV -9 -12 -8 -5 -7 -12 -5 30 -22 -15 61 101 38 700-850 TADV -14 -13 -8 -4 -11 -10 -7 -9 -7 5 23 -8 -4 LAND (KM) 692 642 600 531 469 375 345 414 560 719 890 1071 1264 LAT (DEG N) 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.4 25.3 25.5 26.1 26.9 28.0 29.5 31.2 LONG(DEG W) 153.1 153.9 154.7 155.6 156.5 158.1 159.8 161.5 163.1 164.5 165.7 166.6 167.4 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 0 1 3 6 1 10 14 28 20 13 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -9. -18. -31. -41. -47. -51. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -10. -12. -15. -21. -22. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -13. -18. -25. -29. -40. -51. -62. -66. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 30.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 19.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##