* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LINDA EP152015 09/08/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 110 114 112 107 97 74 54 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 110 114 112 107 97 74 54 33 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 110 111 105 94 83 63 48 37 29 23 18 15 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 9 9 9 14 16 18 17 22 23 25 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 0 1 3 5 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 110 120 136 137 165 218 236 227 227 222 252 270 275 SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.3 25.9 25.5 24.6 23.9 23.6 23.6 23.6 23.7 23.9 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 137 132 126 122 117 108 100 96 96 96 97 99 101 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.7 -50.0 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.1 -50.1 -50.1 -50.8 -51.2 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 76 73 69 66 65 57 54 50 48 44 38 34 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 31 31 29 26 24 20 18 15 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 79 67 56 39 44 33 51 39 42 16 17 9 12 200 MB DIV 67 77 67 14 7 27 3 -2 9 -7 -8 -24 -7 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 -2 -1 6 6 1 6 5 3 3 5 LAND (KM) 430 402 399 425 414 400 467 557 616 679 772 860 931 LAT (DEG N) 21.5 22.3 23.0 23.7 24.3 25.5 26.5 27.1 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 114.5 115.1 115.7 116.3 116.9 118.1 119.5 120.6 121.4 122.3 123.3 124.3 125.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 8 8 7 5 4 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 1 9 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 12 CX,CY: -6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -14. -25. -37. -47. -55. -62. -66. -69. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -10. -15. -19. -22. -26. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -3. -13. -36. -56. -77. -93.-107.-118.-127.-135. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152015 LINDA 09/08/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##