* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GRACE AL072015 09/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 33 32 32 35 37 40 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 32 32 33 32 32 35 37 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 29 29 29 27 27 26 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 24 25 22 26 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 1 2 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 241 248 254 259 268 275 260 263 259 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.6 29.0 28.9 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 136 138 140 140 141 148 154 152 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 139 142 141 142 150 155 152 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 13 13 13 15 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 42 45 45 47 49 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 -7 -21 -28 -29 -35 -32 -47 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 1 0 27 18 -11 -2 -8 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -6 -10 -10 0 -5 -3 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1342 1250 1180 1129 1098 837 663 449 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 15.8 16.3 16.7 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 45.0 46.6 48.3 49.9 51.6 55.2 58.6 61.8 65.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 16 16 17 17 16 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 28 39 25 21 27 61 46 42 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 5. 7. 10. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.1 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.6 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072015 GRACE 09/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072015 GRACE 09/09/2015 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)