* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JIMENA EP132015 09/09/15 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 36 32 29 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 36 32 29 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 39 36 33 29 26 25 23 19 16 15 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 30 34 34 31 40 36 41 41 42 23 23 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 1 1 1 -2 1 4 2 -4 -5 5 2 SHEAR DIR 262 271 283 283 282 280 286 285 315 334 319 209 199 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.3 26.3 24.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 129 131 132 134 137 139 139 140 139 137 129 115 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 5 700-500 MB RH 43 43 43 46 49 54 55 55 53 57 64 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 17 16 15 13 12 15 13 11 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 0 -13 -17 -16 -23 -13 5 11 23 52 144 193 200 MB DIV -7 -15 -13 -9 3 -10 25 -10 -33 -28 58 40 36 700-850 TADV -11 -8 -6 -12 -12 -6 -4 -6 -1 15 26 7 -7 LAND (KM) 634 581 533 473 426 332 312 352 401 481 597 901 1356 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 25.9 25.7 25.6 25.4 25.1 25.0 25.1 25.2 25.7 26.6 29.0 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 153.5 154.3 155.1 156.0 156.9 158.5 159.9 161.0 161.8 162.4 163.0 164.5 166.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 4 3 4 9 17 20 HEAT CONTENT 0 3 4 9 6 13 16 25 29 27 12 9 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 26.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -11. -19. -29. -38. -42. -42. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -8. -10. -13. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -16. -23. -27. -30. -38. -50. -59. -57. -60. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 23.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 09/09/15 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##